Photo : Swissinfo
Photo : Swissinfo
By Rosemary Kurian and Padmashree Anandhan
WAR ON THE GROUND
On 13 February, Ukraine Armed Forces (UAF) claimed on destroying 10 enemy attacks in the Avdiivka axis. According to the report, 52 combat engagements were carried out in the front line, this includes 12 attacks in the Avdiivka direction. It reported on Russian forces launched one missile, 94 air strikes and 89 multiple launcher rocket attacks resulting in killing and injury of civilians and damage of civilian infrastructure. Similarly attacks were observed in Sivershchyna and Slobozhanshchyna axis, Kupyansk axis, Lyman, and Bakhmut axis.
On 13 February, in an interview to German channel ZDF, Colonel Genral Oleksandr Syrskyi, Ukraine’s new Commander-in-Chief observed an increase in “technological progress” in UAF and in armed combat. He stated that there was increased usage of drones by Ukraine and Russia and is most exchanged in the combat zone leading to more process in armed struggle. He added: “we are already seeing the use of ground-based robotic platforms, modules that are controlled remotely, which again makes it possible to save the lives of our servicemen.”
THE MOSCOW VIEW
Claims by Russia
On 13 February, the TASS reported on Russian officials issue of arrest warrant against Kaja Kallas, Estonia's Prime Minister and Taimar Peterkop, Esotnia's Secretary of State for playing a role in destroying Soviet WWII memorials in public places. Kallas stated that the monuments were symbols of colonial occupation and historical “wounds” and the removal has paced up since the Russian offensive in Ukraine. Dmitry Peskov, the Russian spokesperson, stating that Kallas actions were “outrageous” and waging “war with a common history”. Estonia is one of Ukraine’s staunchest supporters from the EU, pledging EUR 1.2 billion till 2027, as well as building defence lines along the Baltic border with Russia with a proposed 600 bunkers.
On 12 February, on the Finland elections, Dmitry Peskov, the Russian spokesperson, stated that Alexander Stubb as the new President of Finland would mean “dialogue would not be possible” between the two states, reiterating Stubb’s statements. Stubb stated earlier that during his term, Finland would have “no relations” with Russia as long as the war in Ukraine continued, stating that Russia would use it as a “propaganda.”
THE WEST VIEW
Responses from the US and Europe
On 12 February, according to a study by the Munich Security Conference (MSC), Russia dropped in its position as a leading threat concern among G7 countries, barring Japan and the UK. Based on public opinions in the G7 countries, the Russian threat has dropped to fourth position compared to 2022, with threats like cyber attacks, climate change, radical Islamic terrorism and migration replacing it. Germany and Italy showcased the sharpest fall in concerns over Russia. Ukraine is “still considered an ally” by the G7 nations but lesser compared to last year, according to the study. Vladimir Putin, the Russian President, had stated during his interview with American journalist Tucker Carlson that the US portrays “an imaginary Russian threat” and that he had no plans of aggression against NATO and the West.
On 13 February, a report by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) based in London found that Russia potentially lost more than 3000 tanks throughout its offensive in Ukraine, which is equivalent to its entire prewar active inventory. They however noted that Russia has enough low quality replacements worth years of storage which can replenish active losses at a rate of “90 tanks per month,” which could sustain it for three more years of war. Ukraine too has suffered heavy losses but has been constantly replenished by western allies with technological upgrades. The report noted that global defence expenditure has increased by nine per cent, exceeding USD 2.2 trillion in 2023, leading with the US and NATO countries. Bastian Giegerich, the Director General of IISS, noted that there are “challenges of scaling up production” and has laid open the cracks in the military preparedness of Europe. The EU might miss its promised target of delivering Ukraine with artillery shells.
On 13 February, the EU declared its plan to impose sanctions on several companies in mainland China, for the first time, for aiding Russia in bypassing European sanctions and buying European dual-use goods. The sanctions could also include companies in Turkey, India and Serbia. China and Russia had declared a “no-limits friendship” between the two countries and several reports suggest that China is aiding Russia in the invasion of Ukraine. The EU aims to impose its 13th set of sanctions against Russia before 24 February marking two years since the Russian offensive in Ukraine. In December, Charles Michel, the EU Council President issued a notice to Xi Jinping, the Chinese Premier, with a list of suspected companies providing dual-use goods. Only on approval from the EU member states the proposed EU sanctions can be imposed.
References
“Ukrainian Defense Forces repel 10 enemy attacks in Avdiivka direction,” Ukrinform, 13 February 2024
“Syrskyi: This war significantly increases importance of technology for army and on battlefield,” Ukrinform, 13 February 2024
“Russia issues arrest warrant for EU state’s PM,” RT, 13 February 2024
Giovanna Coi, “Russia can sustain war effort for ‘two or three years,’ finds defense study,” Politico, 13 February 2024
Jakob Hanke Vela, “EU proposes sanctions on Chinese firms for helping Russia,” Politico, 13 February 2024